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☆ The Bitcoin network completes the fourth-ever ‘halving’ of rewards to miners
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

watch nowThe Bitcoin network on Friday evening completed its fourth "halving," reducing the rewards earned by miners to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25. After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. Hash rates are a measure of the computational power used to process transactions on the bitcoin network. "The market so far has seen bitcoin mining stocks as mere BTC proxies, in absence of bitcoin ETFs," said Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani. "[The] Bitcoin halving is already partially priced in by the market and we do not expect prices to increase significantly following the halving event," the firm's Marion Laboure said in a note Thursday, adding that it "has been widely anticipated in advance due to the nature of the Bitcoin algorithm."

Persons: Reginald Smith, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, MARA, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Marion Laboure Organizations: Metrics, JPMorgan, BTC, IRIS, Deutsche Bank Locations: Friday's

☆ Here's what bitcoin experts see ahead for the world's biggest cryptocurrency
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The narrative on bitcoin is still bullish, though commentators see more volatility ahead. Bernstein analysts wrote this week that the rally firms up their view that bitcoin is on track to hit $150,000 by mid-2025. Here's what some of the market's top commentators have said about the outlook for the world's most popular cryptocurrency. Related stories"We built bitcoin institutional flows in our estimates to arrive at bitcoin price. Saylor said that following the bitcoin halving in April, dwindling supplies would continue to fuel demand, propelling the price momentum even higher, saying "the natural sellers are the miners."

Persons: Bitcoin, Bernstein, —, Kris Marszalek, Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Michael Novogratz, Jamie Dimon, He's, Michael Saylor, Saylor Organizations: Service, CNBC, Galaxy, Galaxy Digital, Wednesday, JPMorgan JPMorgan, Australian Financial

☆ We expect the crypto market to triple from here to $7.5 trillion, says Bernstein's Gautam Chhugani
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect the crypto market to triple from here to $7.5 trillion, says Bernstein's Gautam ChhuganiGautam Chhugani, Bernstein analyst, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss what needs to change for Robinhood's stock to get to $30, why the crypto market will triple in the near-term, and much more.

Persons: Bernstein's Gautam Chhugani Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein

☆ Bitcoin ETFs aren't giving crypto a big boost just yet. Here's where the new funds stand
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The newly launched bitcoin exchange-traded funds are showing early signs of success, but they have so far fallen short of being the massive boost for crypto some bulls predicted. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin has retreated since the launch of the bitcoin ETFs. This fall comes after some crypto investors had cited the ETF launches as a catalyst that could propel bitcoin to $100,000 in 2024. That discount likely attracted arbitrage players who used the ETF launch as an opportunity to close out their trade. Yesterday, all Bitcoin ETFs combined traded $2.2Bn, IBIT traded $340Mn.

Persons: Alex Saunders, Benjamin Budish, Aniket Ullal, Ullal, It's, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Fidelity, Citi, Barclays, CFRA Research, IBIT Locations: bitcoin, GBTC

☆ The early winner in the bitcoin ETF race has raked in $1 billion
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani highlighted in a note to clients Thursday, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been an early winner among the spot bitcoin ETFs that were approved last week. However, the fund has seen about $1 billion in net outflows over the past week, according to FactSet. Even with the GBTC outflows, the spot bitcoin funds have still seen hundreds of millions of net inflows, according to FactSet. "GBTC at 150 bps fee vs. ~20bps fee for rest, would mean cheaper ETFs will continue to absorb GBTC outflows. In that context, $900m of net inflows remains impressive," Bernstein's Chhugani said in a note.

Persons: Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, BlackRock's, Jay Jacobs, GBTC, Bernstein's Chhugani Organizations: IBIT, Fidelity Wise Locations: U.S, BlackRock

☆ Buy the dip in these bitcoin mining stocks over the next two months, Bernstein says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin miners have tumbled since last Thursday, following the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds . The declines are in part due to the pullback in the bitcoin price, which is down roughly 6% in the same period. In a Monday note to investors, Bernstein also pointed to lower investor appetite for mining stocks as a bitcoin proxy now that ETFs have entered the market. "Just like bitcoin, the next two months offer dip buying opportunity in bitcoin miners," Chhugani said. Bitcoin miners were top performers in 2023, outperforming even bitcoin.

Persons: Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, CleanSpark Organizations: Marathon, Energy, Cipher, Securities, Exchange, bitcoin Locations: cashflows, U.S, bitcoin

☆ Bitcoin and gold are smashing through key levels. Here's what's driving the moves
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Both gold and bitcoin kicked off the week by hitting new milestones — spot gold hit a record high above $2,100 per ounce, and bitcoin topped $42,000 to hit its highest level since April 2022. The digital currency appears to have broken through key technical levels and could continue to rally through the end of the year, according to Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group. "A Bitcoin ETF allows easy access to Bitcoin via broker accounts, RIAs and wealth/private banking channels. Think of Bitcoin ETF as the largest pipe ever built between traditional financial markets and crypto financial markets," the note said. XAU= 5D mountain Gold retreated from the record high reached on Sunday evening in New York.

Persons: bitcoin, Joel Kruger, Kruger, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, Bitcoin, Maximilian Layton, Layton, Gold, Craig Erlam Organizations: LMAX, CNBC, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, BlackRock, ETF Locations: Bitcoin, U.S, New York

☆ Bernstein says to buy these crypto stocks to play the expected bitcoin ETF and halving
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Crypto investors are returning attention to two big catalysts – a bitcoin ETF and the Bitcoin halving – and Bernstein has ways to play each. With that backdrop, Bernstein recently initiated coverage on bitcoin mining stocks, with an outperform rating on both Riot Platforms and CleanSpark and a market perform rating on Marathon Digital . "Right now, you should buy RIOT and CLSK, with clear market catalysts around bitcoin ETF approval in early 2024," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a note Monday. Further down the road, there's the next bitcoin halving, which is expected in the spring of 2024. It happens approximately every four years, when the reward for mining bitcoin is cut in half as mandated in the Bitcoin code to reduce the supply of the cryptocurrency over time.

Persons: Bernstein, Crypto, Gautam Chhugani, It's, Chhugani, it's, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Marathon

☆ Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by 2025, predicts Bernstein
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Melina Khan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The price of bitcoin could rise to $150,000 by 2025, Bernstein said Tuesday in a note citing optimism about a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said the firm expects the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to approve a bitcoin ETF by the first quarter of 2024. The only similar product is Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust , or GBTC, which presently holds around 3% of outstanding bitcoin, according to the note. Last week, the price of bitcoin reached $35,000, its highest level since May 2022. However, the court ruling does not guarantee the SEC will approve a bitcoin ETF.

Persons: Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, Gary Gensler, FTX, Sam Bankman, Fried Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, BlackRock, Binance, CNBC

☆ The bitcoin safe haven trade is back on, says Bernstein
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

With recession fears swelling again, investors seeking a safe place to put their assets should be interested in bitcoin , says Bernstein. The cryptocurrency, which has grown in popularity among institutions for its "digital gold" qualities, has an "enviable return record" versus physical gold, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a note Monday. "Bitcoin's hard money properties makes it an attractive 'safe haven' asset. "The early stages of bitcoin adoption, naturally, makes it more attractive [than] gold, with bitcoin market cap at less than 5% of Gold's market value (of above ground reserves)." Jefferies also recently said bitcoin is a "critical hedge" against currency debasement and the return of inflation.

Persons: Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Bitcoin, Chhugani, Paul Tudor Jones, Jefferies, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ The crypto industry is not dead yet. BlackRock is about to revive it, says Bernstein
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

If you think crypto is dead, think again, says Bernstein's digital assets analyst. However, Bernstein says the crypto industry is alive and well — even if the price isn't reflecting that. Circuit sided with crypto investment giant Grayscale against the SEC, which had denied the company's application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an exchange-traded fund. BlackRock , Fidelity , Franklin Templeton and Invesco are among the largest names attempting to launch bitcoin ETFs. There are applications for eight bitcoin ETFs, three ether ETFs and 15 ether futures ETFs.

Persons: Bernstein, Crypto, Gautam Chhugani, Joe, Franklin Templeton, Chhugani, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Blackrock, U.S . Securities, Exchange, U.S, Appeals, SEC, Fidelity, Visa, PayPal Locations: BlackRock

☆ Bitcoin and crypto are about to embark on a 'much stronger fundamental' rally, Bernstein predicts
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"The existing crypto market remains a low liquidity market, with limited new capital entering the space. Investors remain optimistic about the recent developments and what they could mean for the crypto market over the long term, however. The agency for years has maintained that various attempts at a bitcoin ETF didn't satisfy concerns about fraud and manipulation in the market. The ruling shot that down, noting that "bitcoin futures prices are ultimately based on spot market prices." "The industry push for Ethereum spot ETF follows immediately after, given ETH also has a similar market structure of a traded CME futures market ( > 2 years) and a spot market," he added.

Persons: Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, U.S ., Appeals, SEC, ETH, BTC Locations: U.S, Solana

☆ Bitcoin trading volume is at its lowest in more than four years
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As of Aug. 26, bitcoin trading volume on all exchanges sat at 129,307 BTC, according to CryptoQuant. Earlier in the month, on Aug. 12, it fell to 112,317 BTC, its lowest level since Nov. 10, 2018. Bitcoin's trading volume hit its lowest level in almost five years this month as investors keep waiting for reasons to jump back into the market. As we progress further into a bull market, the trading volume may continue to pick up." Correction: On Aug. 12, bitcoin trading volume fell to 112,317 BTC, its lowest level since Nov. 10, 2018.

Persons: CryptoQuant, It's, bitcoin, Julio Moreno, haven't, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, Cantor Fitzgerald, Josh Siegler, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BTC, CNBC, Metrics, Securities and Exchange Commission

☆ Bernstein says crypto may finally have its killer application
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

According to Bernstein, stablecoins are "the monster crypto killer-app" and could be a nearly $3 trillion market over the next five years. "Going forward, we expect tokenized stablecoins to be a $2.8 trillion market, led by regulated, onshore stablecoins." The stablecoin market has dropped sharply this year despite bitcoin being up about 75%. In July, it hit an all-time high of $83.8 billion and now accounts for 68.5% of the overall stablecoin market. The crypto market currently awaits a vote in Congress on a key stablecoin bill , which has just advanced to the House with three other crypto bills for the first time.

Persons: Bernstein, stablecoins, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S .

☆ Bernstein says buy these assets to play the big crypto investment themes
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With bitcoin's price and trading volume still little changed, Bernstein is highlighting other crypto assets with good opportunities for investors. Bitcoin investors have been feeling deja vu as the setup for the next bull run takes shape. "It is time to dial up the crypto exposure, either through crypto equities or direct digital asset exposure for multi-asset strategies," he said. However, several investing themes within the market have emerged in recent years, and Bernstein has identified opportunities in specific assets to play each segment. Chhugani identified a seventh category, crypto games and prediction markets, but said market leaders in that space have yet to emerge.

Persons: Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, Solana, Uniswap, Bernstein's, Ripple's XRP, Michael Bloom

☆ Bernstein sees a $5 trillion opportunity in blockchains for financial markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If financial incumbents want to be part of the modernization of financial markets, they need to adopt blockchains, according to Bernstein. Beyond tradeable assets like bitcoin, however, there's an opportunity over the next five years for financial firms in tokenizing real-world assets on blockchains, the firm said in a note this week. "Tokenization, we believe, will transform financial markets over the next decade," analyst Gautam Chhugani said in the Tuesday note. "We forecast ~$5 trillion of real-world financial assets will be tokenized on blockchains over the next 5 years." There is also a big opportunity for new business verticals in custody, trading, trade finance and enterprise consulting, Chhugani said.

Persons: Bernstein, Cryptocurrencies, there's, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, Hamilton Lane, Franklin Templeton, Michael Bloom Organizations: Investment, KKR, Securitize, JPMorgan Locations: tokenizing, stablecoins

☆ Crypto sees fifth consecutive week of outflows, with negative sentiment focused on bitcoin
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Crypto investment products are coming off their fifth consecutive week of outflows while trading volumes on trusted exchanges hit their lowest level since late 2020, according to CoinShares. Outflows in popular electronic trading products, mutual funds and OTC trusts referencing bitcoin , ether and other crypto assets totaled $32 million for the week ending May 19, CoinShares said in a weekly report Monday. "This was another down week for crypto and, interestingly, a week of divergence with upbeat equity markets," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a note Monday. The market saw $32.7 million in bitcoin outflows, followed by $1 million in ether. Any sign of dislocation in U.S. banks/the U.S. Dollar/the U.S. debt crisis could trigger crypto markets to catch a bid amidst the chaos."

☆ It’s been a month since the big Shapella upgrade. Here’s how Ethereum has changed since then
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A little over a month ago, Ethereum underwent a major technology upgrade that allowed investors to withdraw their "staked," or locked up, coins on the network for the first time ever. The change, known as Shanghai or Shapella, was meant to bring more liquidity to the network by allowing investors to withdraw their staked assets. The total value of ether staked has risen, while the supply has fallen dramatically. Here's what else has happened in the month since Shapella: 1. So far, however, ETH fees have outpaced the growth in the amount of ether staked, leading to higher yields, he said.

☆ 'Ordinals' could signal the beginning of a new generation for Bitcoin. Here's what investors need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"In a way, Bitcoin Ordinals add more diversity and utility to the Bitcoin network, which could elevate the Bitcoin network utility to that of other blockchains, such as Ethereum." There's one population in crypto, however, who have long believed the Bitcoin network could and must do more than that. Binance cited Bitcoin network congestion on Sunday as the reason for pausing withdrawals, and bitcoin dropped 7% between then and Monday. "Congestion, or lots of demand for the block space, is not just good, it's a critical thing for the future of Bitcoin," Miller added. A sneak peek Ordinals and spikes in transaction fees are just a glimpse of what may be on the horizon.

☆ Buy the bitcoin pullback as crypto will have more time to shine later this year, Bernstein says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"Bitcoin and the crypto financial system were made exactly for times like today," he said in a note Monday, highlighting the "breakdown of traditional financial systems" and "first principle questions on the fractional reserve business model of banks." "As the narrative towards a weaker dollar picks up, we believe bitcoin will emerge again as a faster horse than gold," Chhugani said. "Further, we believe it will also unleash a new crypto cycle, bringing about a new wave of innovation in crypto-based decentralized financial systems. Furthermore, the regulatory argument against crypto in the U.S. is weakening, according to the analyst, as Europe and Hong Kong take more progressive approaches. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin (BTC) this year Bitcoin fell about 4% Monday, according to Coin Metrics, after closing out its fourth positive month in a row with a 3% gain.

☆ Bernstein predicts crypto will emerge as an alternative financial system amid bank busts, and says to buy bitcoin
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin was originally designed, after the 2008 financial crisis, as digital cash that doesn't rely on banks. "To rescue the ship, the Fed will have to resort to dollar debasement and monetary printing again, bringing back the role of Bitcoin as digital gold." The shift back to the digital gold narrative has started, since the recent deposit runs and bank failures on regulated U.S. banks, triggered by high interest rates. A couple weeks later its gold correlation surpassed its Nasdaq correlation. "The safe haven signal will lead to a new crypto cycle, pushing digital wallets as on-chain savings accounts," the analysts said.

☆ Bernstein says if you like gold, you should like bitcoin even more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's "irrational" to like gold and dislike bitcoin at this point in the macro cycle, according to Bernstein. At the same time, the flagship cryptocurrency's correlation with gold has been climbing, while its correlation with stocks has declined, Bernstein found. "If you like gold here, you should like bitcoin even more … Gold and bitcoin correlation increases during the periods of crisis. And when there is a massive monetary debasement event, while both bitcoin and gold rally, bitcoin outperforms gold." "Liking gold, but not liking bitcoin, is like hating on a faster horse," they said.

☆ How crypto prices may react to the latest Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed is due to conclude its two-day meeting and unveil its latest policy decision at 2 p.m. Still, inflation and Fed rate hikes remain the biggest catalysts for bitcoin. Here are three scenarios Chhugani and Agrawal are watching, and what investors how investors could expect to see prices react. "Crypto markets may rally on the immediate risk-on impulse, and it may vindicate some who have been saying the Fed reversed course, after breaking the banks," they said. "But any near term crypto rally would find it hard to sustain growth if crypto simply pivots to a risk on trade."

☆ The crypto comeback: Here's what's driving it, according to Bernstein
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A flurry of factors have come together recently to spark a big comeback for crypto . Those gains come after a difficult 2022 for the crypto market. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said that recent regulatory actions may not be as bad as people think, helping push crypto prices upwards. Short covering occurs when a short seller buys back shares in order to close out an open short position — returning borrowed shares — in an attempt to limit losses. But there's more than just short covering — there's fresh buying going on which is forcing prices to squeeze up, the firm said.

☆ Crypto comeback is just a 'mean-reversion' rally, Bernstein says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That's one observation about the current crypto bounce Bernstein analysts made in a note to investors Monday. They called it a mean-reversion rally, meaning that they see bitcoin prices reverting to their long-term mean or average level. "We reckon, the mean reversion of crypto still has some headroom," analyst Gautam Chhugani said in the note. BTC.CM= 6M mountain Bitcoin Nevertheless, Chhugani attributed the recent bounce to capital already within the crypto industry, namely "sidelined stablecoins" being deployed. As the crypto asset class becomes "more regulated," Chhugani expects to see institutions take crypto positions this year, he said.

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